Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
02 Jul 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (03 Jul 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 72 km/h 0.4 m 155 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormDominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia83,460
+
Dominica95 
Martinique630 
Saint Lucia82,734 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Jul 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmHaiti, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama980,844
+
Dominican Republic27,977 
Haiti155,762 
El Salvador1,399 
Nicaragua561,627 
Colombia1,643 
Costa Rica74,960 
Venezuela134,231 
Panama23,242 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Guatemala, Honduras, Saint Lucia, El Salvador, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama4,976,587
+
United States76,548 
Cuba10,186 
Dominican Republic894,762 
Haiti1,149,269 
Dominica5,022 
Guatemala204 
Honduras7,023 
Saint Lucia120 
El Salvador23,385 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines5,190 
Grenada663 
Nicaragua208,725 
Colombia54,891 
Costa Rica1,423,553 
Venezuela941,989 
Panama175,049 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
Blue 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 332 10 thousand
- - - - Honduras, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Panama
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 171 Few people
- - - - Venezuela, Panama
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Jul 2021 00:00 235 980 thousand
- - - - United States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Dominica, Guatemala, Honduras, Saint Lucia, El Salvador, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC