Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
02 Jul 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (02 Jul 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 97 km/h 0.4 m 107 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 470 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormGuadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados474,697
+
Guadeloupe331 
Dominica4,586 
Martinique9,571 
Saint Lucia175,993 
Barbados284,214 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Jul 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmCuba, Haiti, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Guyana690,888
+
Cuba42,373 
Haiti535,193 
Honduras455 
El Salvador85,507 
Nicaragua8,211 
Colombia937 
Costa Rica63 
Venezuela18,032 
Guyana113 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Honduras, Guatemala, Martinique, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Guyana11,837,242
+
United States1,254,928 
Cuba934,866 
Dominican Republic4,408,659 
Haiti1,659,527 
Jamaica63,583 
Honduras103,627 
Dominica6,088 
Guatemala19,176 
Martinique41,468 
El Salvador838,002 
Saint Lucia71,920 
Barbados44,985 
Nicaragua306,978 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines3,576 
Grenada32,535 
Colombia82,104 
Costa Rica1,720,821 
Venezuela125,766 
Panama110,784 
Guyana7,840 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
Blue 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 332 10 thousand
- - - - Honduras, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Panama
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 171 Few people
- - - - Venezuela, Panama
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Jul 2021 00:00 155 60 thousand
- - - - Venezuela
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 12:00 248 690 thousand
- - - - United States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Honduras, Dominica, Guatemala, Martinique, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Guyana




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC