Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
02 Jul 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Jamaica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (02 Jul 01:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 108 km/h 0.6 m 47 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 1.0 m 553 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 1.5 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormJamaica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados1,527,430
+
Jamaica881,680 
Martinique71,350 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines105,185 
Barbados284,214 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 122 -
- - - - - Jamaica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmJamaica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines1,828,053
+
Jamaica1,824,588 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines3,464 
50-100 mmUnited States, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti, Honduras, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana9,194,476
+
United States88,592 
Dominican Republic4,600,965 
Jamaica385,331 
Haiti263,577 
Honduras26,225 
El Salvador63,097 
Saint Lucia33,038 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines101,721 
Barbados256,962 
Grenada2,016 
Venezuela138,234 
Trinidad and Tobago1,353,095 
Colombia843,678 
Costa Rica417,434 
Panama612,197 
Guyana8,306 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 150 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 166 -
- - - - - Honduras, Venezuela
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 265 1.8 million
- - - - United States, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti, Honduras, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC