Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
03 Jul 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Haiti
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (03 Jul 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 101 km/h 0.4 m 136 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormHaiti40,302 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Jul 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 7 03 Jul 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 03 Jul 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Haiti
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama1,874,578
+
United States11,911 
Cuba231,665 
Dominican Republic24,844 
Haiti430,909 
Jamaica1,138,898 
Nicaragua627 
Costa Rica2,175 
Venezuela33,502 
Panama43 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama9,520,435
+
United States1,712,481 
Cuba970,661 
Dominican Republic2,480,771 
Haiti791,423 
Jamaica257,579 
Guatemala97,252 
Honduras591,383 
El Salvador916,241 
Nicaragua1,082,829 
Colombia1,465 
Costa Rica513,653 
Venezuela40,666 
Panama64,024 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
Blue 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 332 10 thousand
- - - - Honduras, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Panama
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 171 Few people
- - - - Venezuela, Panama
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Jul 2021 00:00 155 60 thousand
- - - - Venezuela
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 12:00 107 -
- - - - - Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada
Blue 7 03 Jul 2021 00:00 69 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 03 Jul 2021 12:00 310 1.9 million
- - - - United States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC