Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FELICIA-21
Off-shore
21 Jul 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FELICIA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico, United States
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (22 Jul 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 58 km/h 0.4 m 748 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 58 km/h 0.4 m 748 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

58 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 5Mexico, United States135
+
Mexico32 
United States103 
CAT. 4Mexico, United States08
+
Mexico01 
United States07 
CAT. 3Mexico, United States00
+
CAT. 2United States02 
CAT. 1United States20 
Tropical StormUnited States1,310 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Jul 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Jul 2021 00:00 - Few people
United States
GREEN 3 14 Jul 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 15 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 Jul 2021 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 16 Jul 2021 00:00 - -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 7 16 Jul 2021 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 17 Jul 2021 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 17 Jul 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 18 Jul 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 18 Jul 2021 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 19 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 19 Jul 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 20 Jul 2021 00:00 - Few people
- - -
United States
GREEN 15 20 Jul 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 21 Jul 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jul 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States111,928 
50-100 mmMexico, United States67,988
+
Mexico32 
United States67,956 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Jul 2021 12:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 14 Jul 2021 00:00 204 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Jul 2021 12:00 266 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Jul 2021 00:00 316 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 15 Jul 2021 12:00 256 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 16 Jul 2021 00:00 256 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 16 Jul 2021 12:00 178 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 17 Jul 2021 00:00 123 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 17 Jul 2021 12:00 142 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 18 Jul 2021 00:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 18 Jul 2021 12:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 19 Jul 2021 00:00 178 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 19 Jul 2021 12:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 20 Jul 2021 00:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 20 Jul 2021 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 21 Jul 2021 00:00 269 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 21 Jul 2021 12:00 410 -
- - - - - United States




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico, United States15,432
+
Mexico5,356 
United States10,075 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC