Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21
in Mexico
19 Aug 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GRACE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (16 Aug 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h 1.1 m 350 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 1.1 m 350 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica1,749,284
+
United States12,085 
Mexico1,294,800 
Cuba216 
Cayman Islands59,967 
Jamaica382,214 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Aug 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 13 Aug 2021 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Aug 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 14 Aug 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 14 Aug 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 14 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 15 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 15 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 15 Aug 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 16 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 16 Aug 2021 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 16 Aug 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 14 16 Aug 2021 18:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 15 17 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 17 Aug 2021 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 17 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 17 Aug 2021 18:00 79 -
- - - - - Jamaica
GREEN 19 18 Aug 2021 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands, Jamaica
GREEN 20 18 Aug 2021 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 21 18 Aug 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 22 18 Aug 2021 18:00 112 -
- - - - - Cuba, Cayman Islands
GREEN 23 19 Aug 2021 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

350 mm

Up to 37.6 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico, Costa Rica126,187
+
Mexico95,437 
Costa Rica30,749 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago37,439,422
+
United States1,206,689 
Mexico14,765,061 
Cuba115,927 
Cayman Islands57,668 
Dominican Republic2,794,404 
Haiti297,759 
Jamaica613,402 
Belize2,073 
Guatemala5,466,283 
Honduras732,314 
Nicaragua1,007,715 
El Salvador5,586,591 
Colombia717,861 
Trinidad and Tobago146,426 
Venezuela546,877 
Costa Rica3,382,364 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Belize, Puerto Rico, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Guatemala, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Honduras, Nicaragua, Martinique, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Colombia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Costa Rica112,279,240
+
United States13,701,795 
Mexico44,633,414 
Cuba5,506,831 
Cayman Islands1,365 
Dominican Republic3,928,739 
Haiti2,596,674 
Jamaica2,179,932 
Belize283,551 
Puerto Rico673,336 
Saint Eustatius4,449 
Saint Kitts and Nevis55,571 
Guatemala10,402,837 
Montserrat846 
Guadeloupe138,111 
Honduras2,905,160 
Dominica2,086 
Nicaragua4,749,651 
Martinique256,537 
El Salvador538,970 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines48,680 
Barbados193,157 
Colombia4,614,766 
Grenada1,072 
Trinidad and Tobago1,211,869 
Venezuela12,763,073 
Costa Rica701,756 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Aug 2021 12:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 13 Aug 2021 18:00 45 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Aug 2021 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 4 14 Aug 2021 06:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 14 Aug 2021 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 6 14 Aug 2021 18:00 77 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 7 15 Aug 2021 00:00 71 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 15 Aug 2021 06:00 62 -
- - - - - Venezuela
Blue 9 15 Aug 2021 12:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 15 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 16 Aug 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 16 Aug 2021 06:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 16 Aug 2021 12:00 120 -
- - - - - United States, Dominican Republic
Blue 14 16 Aug 2021 18:00 93 -
- - - - - Dominican Republic, Haiti
Blue 15 17 Aug 2021 00:00 106 -
- - - - - Haiti
Blue 16 17 Aug 2021 06:00 168 -
- - - - - Haiti
Blue 17 17 Aug 2021 12:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 17 Aug 2021 18:00 96 -
- - - - - Jamaica
Blue 19 18 Aug 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 18 Aug 2021 06:00 74 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 18 Aug 2021 12:00 153 30 thousand
- - - - Cayman Islands
Blue 22 18 Aug 2021 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 19 Aug 2021 00:00 294 5.6 million
- - - United States, Mexico, Haiti, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mUnited States2,036 
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States, Mexico2,933
+
United States2,457 
Mexico476 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Mexico, Bahamas, Cuba, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago375,155
+
United States164,626 
Mexico169,380 
Bahamas140 
Cuba16,736 
Venezuela20,632 
Trinidad and Tobago3,638 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC