Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
29 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (29 Aug 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 101 km/h 0.7 m 399 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 490 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico492,334 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 137 Few people
- - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmMexico621 
750-1000 mmMexico12,560 
500-750 mmMexico68,015 
250-500 mmMexico826,304 
100-250 mmMexico1,269,354 
50-100 mmMexico1,066,741 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 413 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 363 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 391 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 193 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 225 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 143 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 179 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 220 130 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 363 360 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 340 30 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 445 140 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 1162 2.2 million
Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC