Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
31 Aug 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (28 Aug 18:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico87,082
+
United States27 
Mexico87,054 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 30 Aug 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 19 30 Aug 2021 06:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 30 Aug 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 30 Aug 2021 18:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 31 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

538 mm

Up to 24.9 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico1,859,611 
100-250 mmMexico23,069,183 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico38,183,998
+
United States790,487 
Mexico37,393,510 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 124 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 157 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 167 170 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 132 80 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 82 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 164 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 18 30 Aug 2021 00:00 103 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 19 30 Aug 2021 06:00 120 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 20 30 Aug 2021 12:00 126 8 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 21 30 Aug 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 22 31 Aug 2021 00:00 153 600 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico30,995 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC