Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDA-21
in United States, Cuba
31 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDA-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States, Cuba
Exposed population 30 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 180 km/h
Maximum storm surge 3.1 m (29 Aug 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 180 km/h 3.1 m 598 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 180 km/h 3.1 m 598 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

180 km/h

Up to 30 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3United States119 
CAT. 2United States1,159 
CAT. 1United States26,008 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba2,351,034
+
United States2,227,989 
Cuba123,045 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Aug 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 5 28 Aug 2021 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 6 28 Aug 2021 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 29 Aug 2021 00:00 173 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 8 29 Aug 2021 12:00 187 3 thousand
- - United States
GREEN 9 30 Aug 2021 00:00 137 20 thousand
- - - - United States
GREEN 10 30 Aug 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 31 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 31 Aug 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmUnited States1,250 
250-500 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia1,698,477
+
United States1,091,092 
Mexico152,245 
Guatemala116,842 
Honduras267,006 
Nicaragua62,515 
Colombia8,774 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica44,320,577
+
United States23,924,179 
Mexico10,941,727 
Cuba346,862 
Cayman Islands2,298 
Jamaica1,214,738 
Guatemala4,378,244 
Honduras697,052 
Nicaragua902,309 
El Salvador796,977 
Colombia927,385 
Costa Rica188,800 
50-100 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Mexico, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela117,146,548
+
United States50,187,561 
Bahamas455 
Mexico40,950,071 
Cuba3,401,084 
Jamaica1,468,018 
Haiti100,707 
Belize2,102 
Guatemala8,396,773 
Honduras2,458,938 
Nicaragua4,462,822 
El Salvador3,422,515 
Colombia2,264,242 
Costa Rica31,034 
Venezuela220 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Aug 2021 00:00 329 220 thousand
- - - United States, Jamaica, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 12:00 163 3 thousand
- - - - Jamaica
Blue 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 235 150 thousand
- - - - Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua
Blue 4 27 Aug 2021 12:00 169 Few people
- - - - Cuba, Mexico, Colombia
Blue 5 28 Aug 2021 00:00 167 10 thousand
- - - - Cuba, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua
Blue 6 28 Aug 2021 12:00 190 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 7 29 Aug 2021 00:00 202 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 8 29 Aug 2021 12:00 300 180 thousand
- - - - United States, Honduras
Blue 9 30 Aug 2021 00:00 325 1.3 million
- - - United States
Blue 10 30 Aug 2021 12:00 237 490 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
Blue 11 31 Aug 2021 00:00 225 8 thousand
- - - - United States, Colombia, Nicaragua, Costa Rica
Blue 12 31 Aug 2021 12:00 290 9.4 million
- - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Colombia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

3.1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
2.0 - 3.0 mUnited States2,163 
1.0 - 2.0 mUnited States15,307 
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States, Cuba141,057
+
United States122,832 
Cuba18,224 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Cuba1,120,519
+
United States1,120,213 
Cuba306 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC