Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDA-21
in United States, Cuba
31 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDA-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Cuba, Cayman Islands
Exposed population 6 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 173 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.8 m (29 Aug 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 173 km/h 2.8 m 471 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.8 m 471 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

173 km/h

Up to 6 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2United States02 
CAT. 1United States5,514 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba, Cayman Islands4,195,800
+
United States1,365,590 
Cuba2,770,242 
Cayman Islands59,967 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - United States, Cayman Islands
GREEN 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 8 28 Aug 2021 06:00 130 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 9 28 Aug 2021 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 18:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Aug 2021 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 29 Aug 2021 06:00 173 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 13 29 Aug 2021 12:00 169 4 thousand
- - - United States
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 18:00 155 1 thousand
- - - - United States
GREEN 15 30 Aug 2021 00:00 122 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 16 30 Aug 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 17 30 Aug 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 30 Aug 2021 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 31 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 31 Aug 2021 06:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 31 Aug 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States1,287,871 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Jamaica, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica73,013,168
+
United States32,495,403 
Cuba715,961 
Mexico30,653,493 
Jamaica4,011 
Guatemala3,591,987 
Honduras859,235 
Nicaragua1,513,251 
El Salvador813,837 
Colombia2,166,770 
Costa Rica196,742 
Venezuela2,471 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela92,021,865
+
United States37,944,094 
Cuba3,134,636 
Mexico25,966,343 
Cayman Islands2,298 
Jamaica2,743,225 
Guatemala10,825,050 
Honduras1,437,644 
Nicaragua2,642,069 
El Salvador5,289,559 
Colombia1,942,794 
Costa Rica92,635 
Venezuela1,512 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Jamaica
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 84 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 8 28 Aug 2021 06:00 105 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 28 Aug 2021 12:00 92 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 29 Aug 2021 00:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Aug 2021 06:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 29 Aug 2021 12:00 209 Few people
- - - - United States
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 18:00 202 800 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 15 30 Aug 2021 00:00 189 1 million
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 16 30 Aug 2021 06:00 139 160 thousand
- - - - United States
Blue 17 30 Aug 2021 12:00 89 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 18 30 Aug 2021 18:00 99 -
- - - - - United States, Colombia
Blue 19 31 Aug 2021 00:00 68 -
- - - - - United States, Colombia, Venezuela
Blue 20 31 Aug 2021 06:00 69 -
- - - - - United States, Colombia
Blue 21 31 Aug 2021 12:00 228 11.5 million
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
2.0 - 3.0 mUnited States1,080 
1.0 - 2.0 mUnited States16,157 
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States, Cuba28,662
+
United States10,131 
Cuba18,530 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Cuba, Honduras1,146,492
+
United States1,135,306 
Cuba3,734 
Honduras7,451 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC