Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDA-21
in United States, Cuba
29 Aug 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDA-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, Cuba, Cayman Islands
Exposed population 670 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 252 km/h
Maximum storm surge 3.1 m (29 Aug 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 252 km/h 3.1 m 541 mm 1.5
HWRF Overall 252 km/h 3.1 m 541 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

252 km/h

Up to 670 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 4United States1,320 
CAT. 3United States7,238 
CAT. 2United States13,894 
CAT. 1United States, Cuba651,188
+
United States630,722 
Cuba20,465 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba, Cayman Islands4,753,812
+
United States1,986,094 
Cuba2,765,419 
Cayman Islands2,298 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Cuba, Cayman Islands
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 122 20 thousand
- - - - Cuba
GREEN 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 122 20 thousand
- - - - Cuba
GREEN 8 28 Aug 2021 06:00 126 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 9 28 Aug 2021 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Aug 2021 00:00 198 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 12 29 Aug 2021 06:00 227 Few people
- - - - United States
GREEN 13 29 Aug 2021 12:00 252 20 thousand
- United States
ORANGE 14 29 Aug 2021 18:00 230 650 thousand
- United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States, Cuba537,007
+
United States535,004 
Cuba2,003 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica10,083,362
+
United States7,432,632 
Cuba1,921,173 
Cayman Islands1,334 
Jamaica728,222 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica15,744,283
+
United States13,251,649 
Cuba1,587,779 
Cayman Islands908 
Jamaica903,945 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 222 80 thousand
- - - - Jamaica
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 138 80 thousand
- - - - Jamaica
Blue 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 194 40 thousand
- - - - Jamaica
Blue 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 244 Few people
- - - - Cayman Islands
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Cuba, Cayman Islands
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 202 330 thousand
- - - - Cuba
Blue 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 131 3 thousand
- - - - Cuba
Blue 8 28 Aug 2021 06:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 28 Aug 2021 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 18:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 29 Aug 2021 00:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Aug 2021 06:00 270 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 29 Aug 2021 12:00 300 Few people
- - - - United States
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 18:00 324 7.7 million
- - - United States




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

3.1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
2.0 - 3.0 mUnited States2,145 
1.0 - 2.0 mUnited States, Cuba20,484
+
United States18,330 
Cuba2,153 
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States, Cuba25,298
+
United States8,920 
Cuba16,377 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Cuba379,568
+
United States372,157 
Cuba7,410 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC