Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDA-21
in United States, Cuba
29 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDA-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population 150 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.7 m (29 Aug 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 169 km/h 2.7 m 209 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.8 m 471 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

173 km/h

Up to 150 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2United States02 
CAT. 1United States150,390 
Tropical StormUnited States1,715,123 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - United States, Cayman Islands
GREEN 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 8 28 Aug 2021 06:00 130 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 9 28 Aug 2021 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 18:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Aug 2021 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 29 Aug 2021 06:00 173 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 13 29 Aug 2021 12:00 169 150 thousand
- - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States1,076,050 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Costa Rica6,760,501
+
United States3,794,544 
Mexico867,800 
Guatemala2,033,898 
Colombia36,494 
Costa Rica27,763 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Cuba, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela38,006,442
+
United States15,414,935 
Mexico10,877,937 
Cuba928 
Guatemala9,790,524 
El Salvador14,748 
Honduras386 
Nicaragua174,230 
Colombia1,541,158 
Costa Rica187,609 
Venezuela3,984 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Jamaica
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 84 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 8 28 Aug 2021 06:00 105 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 28 Aug 2021 12:00 92 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 29 Aug 2021 00:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Aug 2021 06:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 29 Aug 2021 12:00 462 7.8 million
- - - United States, Mexico, Cuba, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC