Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDA-21
in United States, Cuba
29 Aug 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDA-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population 1 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 155 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.8 m (29 Aug 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 155 km/h 2.8 m 202 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.8 m 471 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

173 km/h

Up to 1 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1United States1,067 
Tropical StormUnited States1,341,798 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - United States, Cayman Islands
GREEN 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 8 28 Aug 2021 06:00 130 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 9 28 Aug 2021 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 18:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Aug 2021 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 29 Aug 2021 06:00 173 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 13 29 Aug 2021 12:00 169 4 thousand
- - - United States
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 18:00 155 1 thousand
- - - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States976,544 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica4,444,714
+
United States2,827,025 
Mexico458,367 
Guatemala990,198 
Nicaragua36,119 
Colombia41,033 
Costa Rica91,430 
Venezuela538 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela63,455,544
+
United States14,203,956 
Mexico35,980,634 
Guatemala9,837,941 
Nicaragua412,191 
Honduras50,899 
El Salvador116,688 
Colombia2,769,320 
Costa Rica80,466 
Venezuela3,445 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Jamaica
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 84 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 8 28 Aug 2021 06:00 105 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 28 Aug 2021 12:00 92 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 29 Aug 2021 00:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Aug 2021 06:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 29 Aug 2021 12:00 209 Few people
- - - - United States
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 18:00 382 5.4 million
- - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC