Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDA-21
in United States, Cuba
27 Aug 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDA-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Cuba
Exposed population 2 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (27 Aug 23:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 108 km/h 1.1 m 108 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.8 m 471 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

173 km/h

Up to 5 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2United States08 
CAT. 1United States2,319 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba4,953,779
+
United States2,183,736 
Cuba2,770,043 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - United States, Cayman Islands
GREEN 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 180 2 thousand
- - - United States, Cuba
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States, Mexico498,993
+
United States362,589 
Mexico136,403 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico5,163,399
+
United States3,518,576 
Cuba675,958 
Mexico968,865 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador10,615,844
+
United States1,960,398 
Cuba2,958,594 
Mexico3,402,610 
Guatemala1,292,045 
Honduras491,358 
El Salvador510,836 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Jamaica
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 531 5.7 million
- - - United States, Cuba, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC