Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDA-21
in United States, Cuba
29 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDA-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population 4 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 187 km/h
Maximum storm surge 3.1 m (29 Aug 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 187 km/h 3.1 m 300 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 180 km/h 3.1 m 598 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

180 km/h

Up to 4 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3United States119 
CAT. 2United States1,159 
CAT. 1United States2,592 
Tropical StormUnited States2,247,892 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Aug 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 5 28 Aug 2021 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 6 28 Aug 2021 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 29 Aug 2021 00:00 173 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 8 29 Aug 2021 12:00 187 4 thousand
- - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States, Nicaragua1,038,041
+
United States1,038,008 
Nicaragua33 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica6,932,184
+
United States6,481,497 
Mexico75,962 
Guatemala234,289 
Honduras15,592 
Nicaragua118,729 
Colombia139 
Costa Rica5,972 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica27,637,695
+
United States12,296,606 
Mexico8,837,222 
Guatemala4,004,851 
Honduras270,753 
El Salvador190,321 
Nicaragua1,894,818 
Colombia41,745 
Costa Rica101,376 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Aug 2021 00:00 329 220 thousand
- - - United States, Jamaica, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 12:00 163 3 thousand
- - - - Jamaica
Blue 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 235 150 thousand
- - - - Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua
Blue 4 27 Aug 2021 12:00 169 Few people
- - - - Cuba, Mexico, Colombia
Blue 5 28 Aug 2021 00:00 167 10 thousand
- - - - Cuba, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua
Blue 6 28 Aug 2021 12:00 190 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 7 29 Aug 2021 00:00 202 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 8 29 Aug 2021 12:00 439 8 million
- - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

3.1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC