Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CONSON-21
in Viet Nam, Philippines
08 Sep 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CONSON-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Philippines, Paracel Islands, Vietnam
Exposed population 60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 187 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (08 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Vietnam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 187 km/h 0.3 m 227 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 252 km/h 0.8 m 652 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

252 km/h

Up to 60 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Philippines, Paracel Islands60,761
+
Philippines60,730 
Paracel Islands30 
Tropical StormPhilippines, Paracel Islands, Vietnam12,855,587
+
Philippines12,836,654 
Paracel Islands285 
Vietnam18,648 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Sep 2021 00:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 06 Sep 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 6 07 Sep 2021 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 7 07 Sep 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 8 07 Sep 2021 18:00 166 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 9 08 Sep 2021 00:00 173 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 10 08 Sep 2021 06:00 187 60 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Paracel Islands, Vietnam
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPhilippines, Paracel Islands, Vietnam, Myanmar1,211,124
+
Myanmar568,877 
Vietnam632,455 
Philippines9,760 
Paracel Islands30 
100-250 mmPhilippines, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Paracel Islands, Myanmar, Cambodia, Malaysia, Palau41,583,061
+
Myanmar433,022 
Laos4,225 
Vietnam4,555,691 
Philippines34,244,105 
Thailand1,511,934 
Paracel Islands108 
Cambodia810,876 
Malaysia23,000 
Palau95 
50-100 mmChina, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Paracel Islands, Cambodia, Malaysia71,974,475
+
China661,875 
Myanmar249,701 
Laos1,114,500 
Vietnam21,648,582 
Philippines16,276,538 
Thailand25,676,339 
Paracel Islands202 
Cambodia4,321,096 
Malaysia2,025,637 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Sep 2021 00:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 06:00 164 -
- - - - - China
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 4 06 Sep 2021 18:00 118 90 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 00:00 107 10 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 6 07 Sep 2021 06:00 132 60 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 7 07 Sep 2021 12:00 186 130 thousand
- - - - Thailand, Philippines, Cambodia
Blue 8 07 Sep 2021 18:00 230 430 thousand
- - - - Laos, Philippines
Blue 9 08 Sep 2021 00:00 216 2.2 million
- - - - Laos, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia
Blue 10 08 Sep 2021 06:00 606 42.8 million
- - - China, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Paracel Islands, Cambodia, Malaysia, Palau




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC