Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CONSON-21
in Viet Nam, Philippines
13 Sep 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CONSON-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Vietnam
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 252 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (10 Sep 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Vietnam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 252 km/h 0.8 m 652 mm 1.5
GFS Overall 252 km/h 0.8 m 652 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

252 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 4Philippines28 
CAT. 3Philippines2,564 
CAT. 2Philippines16,661 
CAT. 1Taiwan, Philippines4,101
+
Taiwan2,341 
Philippines1,759 
Tropical StormChina, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Vietnam18,010,755
+
China12,728 
Japan112,146 
Taiwan2,231,185 
Philippines15,576,477 
Paracel Islands129 
Vietnam78,088 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Sep 2021 00:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 06 Sep 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 6 07 Sep 2021 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 7 07 Sep 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 8 07 Sep 2021 18:00 166 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 9 08 Sep 2021 00:00 173 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 10 08 Sep 2021 06:00 187 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 11 08 Sep 2021 12:00 202 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 12 08 Sep 2021 18:00 252 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 13 09 Sep 2021 00:00 227 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Sep 2021 06:00 216 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 09 Sep 2021 12:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 09 Sep 2021 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 17 10 Sep 2021 00:00 212 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 18 10 Sep 2021 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 10 Sep 2021 12:00 194 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Vietnam
GREEN 20 10 Sep 2021 18:00 216 3 thousand
- - - Philippines, Paracel Islands
GREEN 21 11 Sep 2021 00:00 198 20 thousand
- - - Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam
GREEN 22 11 Sep 2021 06:00 223 6 thousand
- Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam
GREEN 23 11 Sep 2021 12:00 198 2 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam
GREEN 24 11 Sep 2021 18:00 169 -
- - - - - Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 25 12 Sep 2021 00:00 158 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 26 12 Sep 2021 06:00 140 -
- - - - - Taiwan, Japan
GREEN 27 12 Sep 2021 12:00 130 -
- - - - - Japan, Taiwan
GREEN 28 12 Sep 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 29 13 Sep 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 13 Sep 2021 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmVietnam, Philippines558,966
+
Vietnam532,094 
Philippines26,872 
250-500 mmJapan, Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia33,645,919
+
Myanmar1,091,187 
Japan1,670 
Taiwan2,411 
Vietnam2,630,162 
Laos2,435 
Philippines28,957,895 
Thailand730,104 
Cambodia230,050 
100-250 mmChina, Japan, Taiwan, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Cambodia, Palau, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia189,037,848
+
Myanmar412,154 
China5,738,825 
Japan105,987 
Taiwan1,237,848 
Vietnam62,357,492 
Laos4,541,678 
Philippines40,326,355 
Thailand57,139,094 
Paracel Islands126 
Cambodia12,288,969 
Palau11,888 
Malaysia4,544,418 
Brunei332,384 
Indonesia623 
50-100 mmMyanmar, China, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Laos, Thailand, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei243,139,633
+
Myanmar1,877,950 
China151,664,765 
Japan1,292,962 
Taiwan19,834,093 
Vietnam25,655,190 
Hong Kong120,994 
Laos1,195,768 
Philippines29,584,447 
Thailand4,917,487 
Paracel Islands328 
Cambodia3,011,972 
Malaysia3,983,078 
Brunei411 
Indonesia180 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Sep 2021 00:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 06:00 164 -
- - - - - China
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 4 06 Sep 2021 18:00 118 90 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 00:00 107 10 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 6 07 Sep 2021 06:00 132 60 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 7 07 Sep 2021 12:00 186 130 thousand
- - - - Thailand, Philippines, Cambodia
Blue 8 07 Sep 2021 18:00 230 430 thousand
- - - - Laos, Philippines
Blue 9 08 Sep 2021 00:00 216 2.2 million
- - - - Laos, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia
Blue 10 08 Sep 2021 06:00 227 8.8 million
- - - - Laos, Thailand, Philippines
Blue 11 08 Sep 2021 12:00 215 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia
Blue 12 08 Sep 2021 18:00 241 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Thailand, Laos
Blue 13 09 Sep 2021 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Thailand, Myanmar
Blue 14 09 Sep 2021 06:00 202 -
- - - - - Thailand, Myanmar
Blue 15 09 Sep 2021 12:00 167 -
- - - - - Myanmar, Philippines
Blue 16 09 Sep 2021 18:00 190 80 thousand
- - - - Myanmar, Philippines
Blue 17 10 Sep 2021 00:00 206 40 thousand
- - - - Paracel Islands, Myanmar, Philippines
Blue 18 10 Sep 2021 06:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 10 Sep 2021 12:00 197 140 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Myanmar, Thailand
Blue 20 10 Sep 2021 18:00 297 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Thailand
Blue 21 11 Sep 2021 00:00 178 830 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Vietnam
Blue 22 11 Sep 2021 06:00 378 410 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam
Blue 23 11 Sep 2021 12:00 230 700 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 24 11 Sep 2021 18:00 221 310 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Vietnam
Blue 25 12 Sep 2021 00:00 251 7 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, Laos
Blue 26 12 Sep 2021 06:00 126 -
- - - - - Japan, Vietnam
Blue 27 12 Sep 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 12 Sep 2021 18:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 13 Sep 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 13 Sep 2021 06:00 266 1.9 million
- - - - China, Japan, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mChina, Philippines33,118
+
China32,742 
Philippines376 
0.25 - 0.5 mChina, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Myanmar3,115,509
+
China1,446,758 
Taiwan79,195 
Vietnam1,204,707 
Philippines376,264 
Myanmar8,583 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC