Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CONSON-21 in Viet Nam, Philippines from 06 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC to 12 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CONSON-21

in Viet Nam, Philippines

07 Sep 2021 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CONSON-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Paracel Islands, Philippines
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	126 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (07 Sep 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Vietnam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	126 km/h	0.4 m	344 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	166 km/h	0.6 m	1105 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Paracel Islands, Philippines	20,450,300	+
	Paracel Islands	53
	Philippines	20,450,246

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	05 Sep 2021 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	06 Sep 2021 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	06 Sep 2021 12:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
4	07 Sep 2021 00:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
5	07 Sep 2021 12:00	148	-		-	-	-	-	-	Paracel Islands, Philippines

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

1105 mm

Up to 57.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand	10,706,774	+
	Vietnam	24,812
	Thailand	203,486
	Philippines	10,478,475
100-250 mm	China, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines, Cambodia, Malaysia	46,636,301	+
	China	235,975
	Vietnam	4,651,709
	Laos	1,249,816
	Myanmar	1,569,412
	Thailand	8,264,814
	Philippines	30,332,145
	Cambodia	322,362
	Malaysia	10,064
50-100 mm	China, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Cambodia, Malaysia	67,780,869	+
	China	1,305,611
	Vietnam	9,874,921
	Laos	1,786,371
	Myanmar	246,716
	Thailand	32,349,521
	Philippines	16,444,034
	Paracel Islands	191
	Cambodia	4,565,993
	Malaysia	1,207,506

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	05 Sep 2021 12:00	315	180 thousand	-	-	-	-	Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia
2	06 Sep 2021 00:00	309	20 thousand		-	-	-	China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia
3	06 Sep 2021 12:00	304	500 thousand		-	-	-	China, Paracel Islands, Philippines
4	07 Sep 2021 00:00	286	820 thousand		-	-	-	China, Philippines, Vietnam
5	07 Sep 2021 12:00	436	57.3 million		-	-	-	China, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Cambodia, Malaysia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
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