Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines
16 Sep 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Russia, North Korea, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (13 Sep 09:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 169 km/h 1.5 m 713 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 169 km/h 1.5 m 713 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

169 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Philippines121 
CAT. 1Philippines15,956 
Tropical StormRussia, North Korea, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands5,848,081
+
Russia581 
North Korea2,206 
Japan1,045,810 
South Korea19,691 
China645,408 
Taiwan4,076 
Philippines4,130,257 
Paracel Islands47 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 00:00 79 -
- - - - - North Korea
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - North Korea, Philippines
GREEN 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 6 08 Sep 2021 00:00 133 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 7 08 Sep 2021 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 8 09 Sep 2021 00:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Sep 2021 12:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 169 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 11 10 Sep 2021 12:00 155 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Paracel Islands
GREEN 12 11 Sep 2021 00:00 176 10 thousand
- - - Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 13 11 Sep 2021 12:00 151 -
- - - - - Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 14 12 Sep 2021 00:00 119 -
- - - - - China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 15 12 Sep 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Russia, China, Japan, Taiwan
GREEN 16 13 Sep 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Russia, South Korea, China
GREEN 17 13 Sep 2021 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Russia, South Korea, China
GREEN 18 14 Sep 2021 00:00 90 -
- - - - - South Korea, China
GREEN 19 14 Sep 2021 12:00 83 -
- - - - - South Korea, China
GREEN 20 15 Sep 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 15 Sep 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 16 Sep 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 16 Sep 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Japan, South Korea
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmSouth Korea, Japan, Philippines455,172
+
Japan193,830 
South Korea111,360 
Philippines149,980 
250-500 mmJapan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines27,272,281
+
China664,194 
Japan1,029,777 
South Korea437,477 
Taiwan23,806 
Philippines25,117,024 
100-250 mmRussia, China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Guam, Micronesia235,337,366
+
Russia68,681 
China135,585,088 
Japan48,349,897 
North Korea923,830 
South Korea1,815,303 
Taiwan4,887,186 
Philippines43,695,297 
Paracel Islands455 
Guam11,006 
Micronesia617 
50-100 mmRussia, Mongolia, China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam467,017,651
+
Russia1,125,753 
Mongolia8,386 
China329,791,128 
Japan71,475,932 
North Korea16,937,635 
South Korea23,776,384 
Taiwan17,248,732 
Hong Kong1,369,684 
Macao575,281 
Philippines4,494,782 
Northern Mariana Islands55,070 
Guam158,878 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Sep 2021 12:00 194 8 thousand
- - - - China, Japan
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 00:00 306 20 thousand
- - - China, South Korea, Japan, Philippines
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 306 500 thousand
- - - North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Paracel Islands, Philippines
Blue 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 284 820 thousand
- - - North Korea, South Korea, China, Philippines
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 12:00 345 550 thousand
- - - Japan, China, Philippines
Blue 6 08 Sep 2021 00:00 272 14.4 million
- - - Japan, China, Philippines, Micronesia
Blue 7 08 Sep 2021 12:00 331 90 thousand
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 8 09 Sep 2021 00:00 314 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 9 09 Sep 2021 12:00 282 -
- - - - - China, Paracel Islands, Philippines
Blue 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 335 30 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Paracel Islands
Blue 11 10 Sep 2021 12:00 335 330 thousand
- - - - Russia, Philippines
Blue 12 11 Sep 2021 00:00 323 40 thousand
- - - Russia, Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 13 11 Sep 2021 12:00 259 100 thousand
- - - - China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 14 12 Sep 2021 00:00 330 1 thousand
- - - - Russia, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 15 12 Sep 2021 12:00 138 -
- - - - - Japan, China, Taiwan
Blue 16 13 Sep 2021 00:00 146 180 thousand
- - - - South Korea, Japan, China
Blue 17 13 Sep 2021 12:00 178 150 thousand
- - - - Japan, South Korea
Blue 18 14 Sep 2021 00:00 180 50 thousand
- - - - Japan, South Korea, China, Philippines
Blue 19 14 Sep 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - South Korea, Taiwan, China
Blue 20 15 Sep 2021 00:00 165 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 15 Sep 2021 12:00 349 100 thousand
- - - Japan
Blue 22 16 Sep 2021 00:00 371 420 thousand
- - - South Korea, Japan, Philippines
Blue 23 16 Sep 2021 12:00 317 54.5 million
- - - - Japan, Russia, China, South Korea, Philippines




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mChina, Japan333,168
+
Japan28,658 
China304,509 
0.5 - 1.0 mChina, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Philippines4,648,458
+
Japan911,283 
China3,270,506 
North Korea50,856 
South Korea150,926 
Philippines264,885 
0.25 - 0.5 mRussia, Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Philippines11,769,994
+
Russia25,086 
Japan1,421,695 
China5,493,802 
North Korea223,923 
South Korea210,887 
Taiwan334,284 
Hong Kong189,177 
Macao117 
Philippines3,871,019 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC