Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines
13 Sep 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries South Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 274 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.9 m (13 Sep 13:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 274 km/h 1.9 m 2082 mm 1.5
HWRF Overall 274 km/h 1.9 m 2082 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

274 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 5Philippines10,391 
CAT. 4Philippines7,435 
CAT. 3Taiwan, Philippines76
+
Taiwan72 
Philippines04 
CAT. 2Taiwan382 
CAT. 1Japan, Taiwan, Philippines5,002
+
Japan1,670 
Taiwan1,908 
Philippines1,423 
Tropical StormSouth Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines17,460,503
+
South Korea582,228 
China11,342,013 
Japan109,815 
Taiwan5,337,110 
Philippines89,334 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 06:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Sep 2021 12:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Sep 2021 18:00 259 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Sep 2021 00:00 266 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Sep 2021 06:00 270 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Sep 2021 12:00 252 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 08 Sep 2021 18:00 256 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Sep 2021 00:00 266 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Sep 2021 06:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Sep 2021 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 09 Sep 2021 18:00 216 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 10 Sep 2021 00:00 266 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 10 Sep 2021 06:00 266 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 18 10 Sep 2021 12:00 252 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines
GREEN 19 10 Sep 2021 18:00 274 20 thousand
Philippines
GREEN 20 11 Sep 2021 00:00 266 20 thousand
- -
Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 21 11 Sep 2021 06:00 259 5 thousand
- Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 22 11 Sep 2021 12:00 230 2 thousand
- - - Taiwan, China, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 23 11 Sep 2021 18:00 198 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 24 12 Sep 2021 00:00 220 2 thousand
- - - - China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 25 12 Sep 2021 06:00 205 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Japan
GREEN 26 12 Sep 2021 12:00 176 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Japan
GREEN 27 12 Sep 2021 18:00 158 -
- - - - - China, Japan, Taiwan
GREEN 28 13 Sep 2021 00:00 144 -
- - - - - South Korea, China
GREEN 29 13 Sep 2021 06:00 130 -
- - - - - South Korea, China, Japan
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmSouth Korea84,883 
750-1000 mmSouth Korea19,724 
500-750 mmSouth Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines158,751
+
South Korea43,339 
China114,782 
Taiwan601 
Philippines28 
250-500 mmSouth Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines1,925,723
+
South Korea313,416 
China1,136,681 
Taiwan408,802 
Philippines66,823 
100-250 mmSouth Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines18,146,365
+
South Korea220,946 
China13,540,076 
Taiwan3,190,952 
Japan4,421 
Philippines1,189,969 
50-100 mmSouth Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines44,417,879
+
South Korea637,099 
China35,167,129 
Taiwan7,182,962 
Japan47,853 
Philippines1,382,834 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 276 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 06:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 07 Sep 2021 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Sep 2021 18:00 268 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Sep 2021 00:00 386 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Sep 2021 06:00 405 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Sep 2021 12:00 319 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 08 Sep 2021 18:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 09 Sep 2021 00:00 353 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 09 Sep 2021 06:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 09 Sep 2021 12:00 233 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 09 Sep 2021 18:00 224 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 10 Sep 2021 00:00 279 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 17 10 Sep 2021 06:00 330 30 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 18 10 Sep 2021 12:00 265 30 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 19 10 Sep 2021 18:00 310 20 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 20 11 Sep 2021 00:00 301 50 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 21 11 Sep 2021 06:00 385 100 thousand
- - - Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 22 11 Sep 2021 12:00 275 190 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 23 11 Sep 2021 18:00 328 190 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 24 12 Sep 2021 00:00 218 20 thousand
- - - - China, Taiwan, Japan
Blue 25 12 Sep 2021 06:00 219 60 thousand
- - - - China, Taiwan, Japan
Blue 26 12 Sep 2021 12:00 137 230 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 27 12 Sep 2021 18:00 217 490 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 28 13 Sep 2021 00:00 134 3 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 29 13 Sep 2021 06:00 2047 1.7 million
South Korea, China




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.9 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mChina, Philippines1,018,951
+
China1,018,618 
Philippines333 
0.5 - 1.0 mChina, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines1,978,513
+
Japan124,715 
China1,829,813 
South Korea7,376 
Taiwan16,182 
Philippines425 
0.25 - 0.5 mRussia, Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Philippines4,801,850
+
Russia652 
Japan154,197 
China3,357,199 
North Korea226,428 
South Korea290,551 
Taiwan536,603 
Hong Kong271 
Philippines235,944 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC