Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Russia, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 151 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (11 Sep 14:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 151 km/h 0.5 m 259 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 169 km/h 1.5 m 713 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

169 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Japan590 
Tropical StormRussia, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines31,802,161
+
Russia981 
Japan105,408 
China31,671,284 
Taiwan6,654 
Philippines17,831 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 00:00 79 -
- - - - - North Korea
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - North Korea, Philippines
GREEN 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 6 08 Sep 2021 00:00 133 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 7 08 Sep 2021 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 8 09 Sep 2021 00:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Sep 2021 12:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 169 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 11 10 Sep 2021 12:00 155 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Paracel Islands
GREEN 12 11 Sep 2021 00:00 176 10 thousand
- - - Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 13 11 Sep 2021 12:00 180 Few people
- - - - Russia, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSouth Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines29,734,174
+
China29,310,596 
South Korea133,390 
Taiwan289,593 
Philippines593 
100-250 mmRussia, South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines66,917,137
+
Russia25 
China62,728,988 
Japan413,670 
South Korea415,480 
Taiwan3,341,837 
Philippines17,134 
50-100 mmRussia, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Micronesia52,022,987
+
Russia1,157 
China27,377,947 
Japan3,785,027 
South Korea6,347 
Taiwan17,702,972 
Philippines3,149,088 
Micronesia447 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Sep 2021 12:00 194 8 thousand
- - - - China, Japan
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 00:00 306 20 thousand
- - - China, South Korea, Japan, Philippines
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 306 500 thousand
- - - North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Paracel Islands, Philippines
Blue 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 284 820 thousand
- - - North Korea, South Korea, China, Philippines
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 12:00 345 550 thousand
- - - Japan, China, Philippines
Blue 6 08 Sep 2021 00:00 272 14.4 million
- - - Japan, China, Philippines, Micronesia
Blue 7 08 Sep 2021 12:00 331 90 thousand
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 8 09 Sep 2021 00:00 314 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 9 09 Sep 2021 12:00 282 -
- - - - - China, Paracel Islands, Philippines
Blue 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 335 30 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Paracel Islands
Blue 11 10 Sep 2021 12:00 335 330 thousand
- - - - Russia, Philippines
Blue 12 11 Sep 2021 00:00 323 40 thousand
- - - Russia, Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 13 11 Sep 2021 12:00 484 96.7 million
- - - Russia, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Micronesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC