Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines
12 Sep 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Russia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (12 Sep 20:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 104 km/h 1.0 m 138 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 169 km/h 1.5 m 713 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

169 km/h

Up to 16.1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormRussia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan16,130,707
+
Russia619 
Japan80,190 
South Korea3,473 
China16,044,709 
Taiwan1,714 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 00:00 79 -
- - - - - North Korea
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - North Korea, Philippines
GREEN 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 6 08 Sep 2021 00:00 133 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 7 08 Sep 2021 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 8 09 Sep 2021 00:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Sep 2021 12:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 169 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 11 10 Sep 2021 12:00 155 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Paracel Islands
GREEN 12 11 Sep 2021 00:00 176 10 thousand
- - - Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 13 11 Sep 2021 12:00 151 -
- - - - - Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 14 12 Sep 2021 00:00 119 -
- - - - - China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 15 12 Sep 2021 12:00 112 -
- - - - - Russia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmChina2,594,155 
250-500 mmSouth Korea, Japan, China21,830,322
+
China21,717,019 
South Korea105,309 
Japan7,992 
100-250 mmSouth Korea, Japan, China, Philippines51,829,133
+
China49,513,623 
South Korea831,025 
Japan1,477,532 
Philippines6,952 
50-100 mmChina, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines37,384,495
+
China23,441,053 
South Korea1,491,618 
Japan8,859,187 
Taiwan3,462,934 
Philippines129,701 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Sep 2021 12:00 194 8 thousand
- - - - China, Japan
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 00:00 306 20 thousand
- - - China, South Korea, Japan, Philippines
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 306 500 thousand
- - - North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Paracel Islands, Philippines
Blue 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 284 820 thousand
- - - North Korea, South Korea, China, Philippines
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 12:00 345 550 thousand
- - - Japan, China, Philippines
Blue 6 08 Sep 2021 00:00 272 14.4 million
- - - Japan, China, Philippines, Micronesia
Blue 7 08 Sep 2021 12:00 331 90 thousand
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 8 09 Sep 2021 00:00 314 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 9 09 Sep 2021 12:00 282 -
- - - - - China, Paracel Islands, Philippines
Blue 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 335 30 thousand
- - - - Philippines, Paracel Islands
Blue 11 10 Sep 2021 12:00 335 330 thousand
- - - - Russia, Philippines
Blue 12 11 Sep 2021 00:00 323 40 thousand
- - - Russia, Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 13 11 Sep 2021 12:00 259 100 thousand
- - - - China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 14 12 Sep 2021 00:00 330 1 thousand
- - - - Russia, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 15 12 Sep 2021 12:00 667 76.3 million
- - China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC