Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines
07 Sep 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Paracel Islands, Philippines
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (07 Sep 14:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 119 km/h 0.6 m 345 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 169 km/h 1.5 m 713 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormParacel Islands, Philippines21,469,411
+
Paracel Islands53 
Philippines21,469,358 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 00:00 79 -
- - - - - North Korea
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - North Korea, Philippines
GREEN 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands, Philippines
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

713 mm

Up to 40.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPhilippines10,926,807 
100-250 mmChina, Japan, Philippines29,343,179
+
China368,405 
Japan9,882 
Philippines28,964,891 
50-100 mmRussia, China, Japan, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Micronesia38,874,720
+
Russia57,205 
China12,100,323 
Japan14,769,287 
Philippines11,947,100 
Paracel Islands185 
Micronesia617 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Sep 2021 12:00 194 8 thousand
- - - - China, Japan
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 00:00 306 20 thousand
- - - China, South Korea, Japan, Philippines
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 12:00 306 500 thousand
- - - North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Paracel Islands, Philippines
Blue 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 284 820 thousand
- - - North Korea, South Korea, China, Philippines
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 12:00 435 40.3 million
- - - Russia, China, Japan, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Micronesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC