Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
12 Sep 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Sep 20:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico716,713 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Sep 2021 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 119 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 10 Sep 2021 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 12 10 Sep 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 10 Sep 2021 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 11 Sep 2021 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 11 Sep 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 11 Sep 2021 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 11 Sep 2021 18:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 12 Sep 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

445 mm

Up to 920 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico923,911 
50-100 mmMexico5,470,749 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 09 Sep 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 148 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 10 Sep 2021 06:00 104 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 10 Sep 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 13 10 Sep 2021 18:00 67 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 14 11 Sep 2021 00:00 35 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 11 Sep 2021 06:00 19 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 11 Sep 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 11 Sep 2021 18:00 12 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 12 Sep 2021 00:00 265 390 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMexico00
+
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico6,690 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC