Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICHOLAS-21
in United States
15 Sep 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICHOLAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (14 Sep 05:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 94 km/h 1.2 m 322 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 94 km/h 1.2 m 322 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 300 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States295,220 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 12 Sep 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 12 Sep 2021 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 13 Sep 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 13 Sep 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 13 Sep 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 7 14 Sep 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 8 14 Sep 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 9 14 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 14 Sep 2021 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 15 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 15 Sep 2021 06:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 15 Sep 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 15 Sep 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States, Mexico1,195,779
+
United States286,502 
Mexico909,277 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua12,402,065
+
United States6,766,262 
Mexico5,191,830 
Guatemala389,418 
Honduras38,030 
Nicaragua16,522 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua59,376,314
+
United States7,437,137 
Mexico43,096,661 
Belize1,248 
Guatemala5,841,769 
Honduras1,154,954 
El Salvador1,104,918 
Nicaragua739,624 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 12 Sep 2021 12:00 150 230 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 12 Sep 2021 18:00 110 20 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 132 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 13 Sep 2021 06:00 159 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 13 Sep 2021 12:00 137 710 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 6 13 Sep 2021 18:00 124 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 7 14 Sep 2021 00:00 151 130 thousand
- - - - United States
Blue 8 14 Sep 2021 06:00 154 180 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 9 14 Sep 2021 12:00 120 30 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 10 14 Sep 2021 18:00 50 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 11 15 Sep 2021 00:00 91 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 12 15 Sep 2021 06:00 55 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 13 15 Sep 2021 12:00 42 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 15 Sep 2021 18:00 162 160 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.2 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mUnited States21,770 
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States56,323 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Mexico, Honduras26,482
+
United States23,154 
Mexico656 
Honduras2,671 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC