Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICHOLAS-21
in United States
13 Sep 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICHOLAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (13 Sep 11:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 83 km/h 0.5 m 159 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 94 km/h 1.2 m 322 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 190 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States186,345 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 12 Sep 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 12 Sep 2021 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 13 Sep 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico7,173,513
+
United States5,802,057 
Mexico1,371,455 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua11,141,446
+
United States8,027,967 
Mexico2,444,791 
Honduras612,802 
Nicaragua55,885 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 12 Sep 2021 12:00 150 230 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 12 Sep 2021 18:00 110 20 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 132 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 13 Sep 2021 06:00 259 7.2 million
- - - - United States, Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC