Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICHOLAS-21
in United States
15 Sep 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICHOLAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 47 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (15 Sep 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 47 km/h 0.7 m 234 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 1.3 m 349 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

76 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 12 Sep 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 12 Sep 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 13 Sep 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 5 14 Sep 2021 00:00 83 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 6 14 Sep 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Sep 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States16,580 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras1,996,392
+
United States1,948,703 
Mexico16,113 
Guatemala30,486 
Honduras1,090 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua10,818,393
+
United States7,879,697 
Mexico1,378,727 
Guatemala544,148 
Honduras960,380 
Nicaragua55,439 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 12 Sep 2021 00:00 177 140 thousand
- - - - Mexico, El Salvador
Blue 2 12 Sep 2021 12:00 248 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 199 40 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 4 13 Sep 2021 12:00 154 250 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 5 14 Sep 2021 00:00 227 590 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Nicaragua
Blue 6 14 Sep 2021 12:00 238 70 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 7 15 Sep 2021 00:00 340 2 million
- - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC