Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICHOLAS-21
in United States
14 Sep 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICHOLAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population 3 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 126 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (14 Sep 10:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 126 km/h 1.5 m 210 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 126 km/h 1.6 m 902 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

126 km/h

Up to 3 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1United States3,375 
Tropical StormUnited States3,592,859 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 12 Sep 2021 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 12 Sep 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 4 13 Sep 2021 06:00 119 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 5 13 Sep 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 13 Sep 2021 18:00 101 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 7 14 Sep 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 8 14 Sep 2021 06:00 126 3 thousand
- - - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmUnited States116 
750-1000 mmUnited States852 
500-750 mmUnited States9,379 
250-500 mmUnited States699,342 
100-250 mmUnited States2,015,612 
50-100 mmUnited States3,140,049 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 12 Sep 2021 12:00 323 30 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 12 Sep 2021 18:00 184 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 275 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 4 13 Sep 2021 06:00 366 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 5 13 Sep 2021 12:00 155 7 thousand
- - - - United States
Blue 6 13 Sep 2021 18:00 180 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 7 14 Sep 2021 00:00 452 70 thousand
- - - - United States
Blue 8 14 Sep 2021 06:00 1103 2.7 million
United States




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC