Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MINDULLE-21
in Japan, Russian Federation, Guam
01 Oct 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MINDULLE-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Russia, Japan, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 9 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 238 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.4 m (03 Oct 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 238 km/h 1.4 m 1445 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 238 km/h 1.4 m 1445 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

238 km/h

Up to 9 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Japan8,794 
Tropical StormRussia, Japan, Northern Mariana Islands1,064,093
+
Russia68,565 
Japan993,778 
Northern Mariana Islands1,749 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Sep 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Sep 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Sep 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Sep 2021 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN 5 23 Sep 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 23 Sep 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 24 Sep 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 24 Sep 2021 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 24 Sep 2021 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 24 Sep 2021 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 25 Sep 2021 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 25 Sep 2021 06:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 25 Sep 2021 12:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 25 Sep 2021 18:00 198 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 26 Sep 2021 00:00 216 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 26 Sep 2021 06:00 238 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 26 Sep 2021 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 26 Sep 2021 18:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 27 Sep 2021 00:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 27 Sep 2021 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 27 Sep 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 27 Sep 2021 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 28 Sep 2021 00:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 28 Sep 2021 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 28 Sep 2021 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 28 Sep 2021 18:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 29 Sep 2021 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 29 Sep 2021 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 29 Sep 2021 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 29 Sep 2021 18:00 166 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 31 30 Sep 2021 00:00 155 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 32 30 Sep 2021 06:00 140 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 33 30 Sep 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 34 30 Sep 2021 18:00 140 Few people
- - - - Japan
GREEN 35 01 Oct 2021 00:00 151 9 thousand
- - - - Russia, Japan
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPhilippines2,175 
100-250 mmRussia, China, North Korea, Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau14,187,279
+
Russia2,550 
China1,025,713 
Japan4,975,888 
North Korea1,642,079 
Northern Mariana Islands55,070 
Guam169,884 
Philippines6,206,298 
Marshall Islands17,945 
Micronesia70,735 
Palau21,114 
50-100 mmRussia, China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Philippines, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Indonesia61,648,480
+
Russia298,908 
China3,641,599 
Japan37,871,955 
North Korea7,178,522 
South Korea882 
Philippines12,620,657 
Marshall Islands2,036 
Micronesia33,258 
Palau34 
Indonesia623 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Sep 2021 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Sep 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Marshall Islands
Blue 3 23 Sep 2021 00:00 105 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 23 Sep 2021 06:00 57 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 23 Sep 2021 12:00 100 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 23 Sep 2021 18:00 116 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 24 Sep 2021 00:00 89 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 24 Sep 2021 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 24 Sep 2021 12:00 142 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 24 Sep 2021 18:00 142 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 25 Sep 2021 00:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 25 Sep 2021 06:00 202 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 25 Sep 2021 12:00 256 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 25 Sep 2021 18:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 26 Sep 2021 00:00 277 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 16 26 Sep 2021 06:00 287 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 26 Sep 2021 12:00 236 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 26 Sep 2021 18:00 235 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 27 Sep 2021 00:00 188 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 27 Sep 2021 06:00 230 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 27 Sep 2021 12:00 195 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 27 Sep 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 28 Sep 2021 00:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 28 Sep 2021 06:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 28 Sep 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - North Korea
Blue 26 28 Sep 2021 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 29 Sep 2021 00:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 29 Sep 2021 06:00 142 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 29 Sep 2021 12:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 29 Sep 2021 18:00 143 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 30 Sep 2021 00:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 30 Sep 2021 06:00 123 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 30 Sep 2021 12:00 89 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 34 30 Sep 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 35 01 Oct 2021 00:00 225 2.4 million
- - - - Russia, Japan, China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mJapan, South Korea172,699
+
Japan5,913 
South Korea166,786 
0.5 - 1.0 mRussia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea912,597
+
Russia12,778 
Japan571,193 
North Korea153,788 
South Korea174,836 
0.25 - 0.5 mRussia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Philippines, Palau4,850,219
+
Russia44,085 
Japan3,669,855 
North Korea139,626 
South Korea277,471 
Philippines718,829 
Palau351 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC