Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MINDULLE-21
in Japan, Russian Federation, Guam
22 Sep 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MINDULLE-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (22 Sep 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 76 km/h 0.8 m 264 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 266 km/h 0.9 m 1794 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

266 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormNorthern Mariana Islands52,527 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Sep 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Sep 2021 18:00 202 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmNorthern Mariana Islands52,502 
50-100 mmNorthern Mariana Islands, Guam103,435
+
Northern Mariana Islands2,567 
Guam100,868 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Sep 2021 12:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Sep 2021 18:00 620 50 thousand
- - - - Northern Mariana Islands, Guam




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC