Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MINDULLE-21
in Japan, Russian Federation, Guam
27 Sep 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MINDULLE-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Japan
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 155 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (28 Sep 10:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 155 km/h 0.5 m 173 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 266 km/h 0.9 m 1794 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormJapan517 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Sep 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Sep 2021 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Sep 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Sep 2021 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 23 Sep 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 23 Sep 2021 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 24 Sep 2021 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 24 Sep 2021 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 24 Sep 2021 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 24 Sep 2021 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 25 Sep 2021 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 25 Sep 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 25 Sep 2021 12:00 245 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 25 Sep 2021 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 26 Sep 2021 00:00 266 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 26 Sep 2021 06:00 259 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 26 Sep 2021 12:00 241 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 26 Sep 2021 18:00 191 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 27 Sep 2021 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 27 Sep 2021 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 27 Sep 2021 12:00 205 -
- - - - - Japan
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

1794 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Sep 2021 12:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Sep 2021 18:00 264 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 23 Sep 2021 00:00 273 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 23 Sep 2021 06:00 340 -
- - - - - Guam
Blue 5 23 Sep 2021 12:00 196 -
- - - - - Northern Mariana Islands
Blue 6 23 Sep 2021 18:00 299 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 24 Sep 2021 00:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 24 Sep 2021 06:00 212 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 24 Sep 2021 12:00 228 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 24 Sep 2021 18:00 300 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 25 Sep 2021 00:00 235 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 25 Sep 2021 06:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 25 Sep 2021 12:00 358 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 25 Sep 2021 18:00 271 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 26 Sep 2021 00:00 411 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 26 Sep 2021 06:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 26 Sep 2021 12:00 356 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 26 Sep 2021 18:00 233 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 27 Sep 2021 00:00 256 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 27 Sep 2021 06:00 209 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 27 Sep 2021 12:00 658 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC