Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MALOU-21
Off-shore
29 Oct 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MALOU-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Japan, Russia
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (24 Oct 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 169 km/h 1.1 m 550 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 169 km/h 1.1 m 550 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

169 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Japan144 
Tropical StormJapan, Russia250,045
+
Japan241,093 
Russia8,952 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Oct 2021 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Oct 2021 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 24 Oct 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Oct 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Oct 2021 06:00 90 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 6 25 Oct 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 7 25 Oct 2021 18:00 90 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 8 26 Oct 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 9 26 Oct 2021 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Oct 2021 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 26 Oct 2021 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 27 Oct 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 27 Oct 2021 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 27 Oct 2021 12:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 27 Oct 2021 18:00 130 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 16 28 Oct 2021 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 17 28 Oct 2021 06:00 130 Few people
- - - - Japan
GREEN 18 28 Oct 2021 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 19 28 Oct 2021 18:00 148 -
- - - - - Japan, Russia
GREEN 20 29 Oct 2021 00:00 169 -
- - - - - Japan, Russia
GREEN 21 29 Oct 2021 06:00 162 -
- - - - - Russia
GREEN 22 29 Oct 2021 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Russia
GREEN 23 29 Oct 2021 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmJapan, Guam, Micronesia, Marshall Islands111,011
+
Japan27,712 
Guam19,500 
Marshall Islands21,963 
Micronesia41,835 
50-100 mmJapan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Marshall Islands, Micronesia3,808,260
+
Japan3,532,346 
Northern Mariana Islands55,070 
Guam150,384 
Marshall Islands27,432 
Micronesia43,026 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Oct 2021 00:00 98 -
- - - - - Marshall Islands
Blue 2 24 Oct 2021 06:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 24 Oct 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Oct 2021 00:00 172 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 5 25 Oct 2021 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Oct 2021 12:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 25 Oct 2021 18:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Oct 2021 00:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 26 Oct 2021 06:00 241 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Oct 2021 12:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 26 Oct 2021 18:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 27 Oct 2021 00:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 27 Oct 2021 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 27 Oct 2021 12:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 27 Oct 2021 18:00 144 -
- - - - - Marshall Islands
Blue 16 28 Oct 2021 00:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 28 Oct 2021 06:00 165 Few people -
- - - - Japan
Blue 18 28 Oct 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 28 Oct 2021 18:00 181 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 29 Oct 2021 00:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 29 Oct 2021 06:00 51 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 29 Oct 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 29 Oct 2021 18:00 328 1 thousand
- - - - Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Micronesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mJapan6,667 
0.5 - 1.0 mRussia, Japan665,092
+
Russia21,992 
Japan643,100 
0.25 - 0.5 mRussia, Japan, South Korea, Palau4,259,890
+
Russia20,262 
Japan3,997,802 
South Korea240,409 
Palau1,415 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC