Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JAWAD-21
Off-shore
04 Dec 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JAWAD-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (07 Dec 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 58 km/h 0.4 m 329 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 58 km/h 0.4 m 329 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

58 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 02 Dec 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 04 Dec 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmNepal, Bangladesh, India4,070,957
+
India56,163 
Nepal26 
Bangladesh4,014,766 
100-250 mmIndia, Nepal, China, Bhutan, Bangladesh135,686,517
+
India73,054,718 
Nepal3,317 
China3,246 
Bhutan251 
Bangladesh62,624,983 
50-100 mmIndia, Nepal, China, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia106,018,926
+
India49,709,391 
Nepal222,556 
China2,862 
Myanmar50,728 
Bhutan2,879 
Bangladesh54,140,937 
Sri Lanka897,986 
Indonesia991,582 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 02 Dec 2021 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Nepal, China
Blue 2 03 Dec 2021 00:00 178 -
- - - - - China, Nepal
Blue 3 03 Dec 2021 12:00 176 -
- - - - - India
Blue 4 04 Dec 2021 00:00 162 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 5 04 Dec 2021 12:00 328 89.9 million
- - - India, Nepal, China, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mBangladesh, India, Myanmar663,959
+
Bangladesh541,406 
India114,064 
Myanmar8,487 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 12:00 UTC