Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JAWAD-21
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JAWAD-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries China
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (06 Dec 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 65 km/h 0.4 m 69 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 83 km/h 0.5 m 253 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

83 km/h

Up to 8 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormChina8,392 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2021 06:00 76 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2021 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - China
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndia501,688 
50-100 mmMyanmar, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka70,249,114
+
Myanmar88,306 
India60,079,893 
Bangladesh10,026,208 
Sri Lanka54,705 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2021 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Dec 2021 06:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2021 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2021 18:00 95 -
- - - - - India
Blue 5 04 Dec 2021 00:00 160 500 thousand
- - - - Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 00:00 UTC