Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JAWAD-21
Off-shore
04 Dec 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JAWAD-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries China
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (07 Dec 12:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 83 km/h 0.5 m 253 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 83 km/h 0.5 m 253 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormChina23,184 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2021 06:00 76 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2021 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Dec 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 04 Dec 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 04 Dec 2021 18:00 65 -
- - - - - China
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh44,753,259
+
India29,770,859 
Bangladesh14,982,399 
50-100 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Indonesia112,545,886
+
India73,094,316 
Bangladesh37,537,276 
Myanmar49,341 
Sri Lanka638,124 
Indonesia1,226,827 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2021 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Dec 2021 06:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2021 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2021 18:00 95 -
- - - - - India
Blue 5 04 Dec 2021 00:00 69 -
- - - - - India
Blue 6 04 Dec 2021 06:00 66 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 04 Dec 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 04 Dec 2021 18:00 123 26 million
- - - - India, Bangladesh, Myanmar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mIndia, Myanmar173,868
+
India158,346 
Myanmar15,522 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2021 18:00 UTC