Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TWENTYNINE-21
Off-shore
17 Dec 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TWENTYNINE-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Vietnam
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (18 Dec 08:15 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 72 km/h 0.4 m 269 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 72 km/h 0.4 m 269 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

72 km/h

Up to 30 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Dec 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormVietnam27,742 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Dec 2021 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Dec 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Dec 2021 06:00 61 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 17 Dec 2021 12:00 72 -
- - - - - Vietnam
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Dec 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Malaysia1,663,222
+
Malaysia979,940 
Indonesia683,281 
50-100 mmIndia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia5,680,076
+
India8,037 
Thailand514,007 
Malaysia3,653,625 
Indonesia1,504,405 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Dec 2021 18:00 115 2 thousand
- - - - Malaysia
Blue 2 17 Dec 2021 00:00 58 -
- - - - - Malaysia
Blue 3 17 Dec 2021 06:00 62 -
- - - - - Malaysia
Blue 4 17 Dec 2021 12:00 265 660 thousand
- - - - India, Indonesia, Malaysia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Dec 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mCambodia, Thailand, Vietnam459,202
+
Cambodia71,815 
Thailand82,691 
Vietnam304,696 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Dec 2021 12:00 UTC