Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ANA-22
in Mozambique, Malawi, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar, Zimbabwe
24 Jan 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ANA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (24 Jan 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 97 km/h 0.8 m 959 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 97 km/h 0.8 m 959 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

97 km/h

Up to 990 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Jan 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMalawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe994,328
+
Malawi558,122 
Mozambique434,943 
Zimbabwe1,261 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Jan 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 23 Jan 2022 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 24 Jan 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 24 Jan 2022 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Jan 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMalawi4,533 
500-750 mmMalawi, Zimbabwe, Mozambique319,813
+
Mozambique2,448 
Malawi305,397 
Zimbabwe11,967 
250-500 mmMozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe4,207,519
+
Mozambique1,503,518 
Malawi2,639,991 
Zimbabwe64,009 
100-250 mmMozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe11,414,078
+
Mozambique6,528,097 
Malawi3,417,615 
Zambia91,864 
Zimbabwe1,376,501 
50-100 mmMozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Madagascar12,880,577
+
Mozambique6,225,941 
Malawi1,575,462 
Zambia618,089 
Zimbabwe4,455,962 
Madagascar5,121 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Jan 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 23 Jan 2022 18:00 338 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 3 24 Jan 2022 00:00 139 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 4 24 Jan 2022 06:00 959 14.5 million
- Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Jan 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mTanzania, Mozambique202,125
+
Tanzania12,755 
Mozambique189,370 
0.25 - 0.5 mTanzania, Madagascar, Mozambique519,189
+
Tanzania129,598 
Madagascar171,513 
Mozambique218,077 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Jan 2022 06:00 UTC