Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
02 Feb 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 162 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (02 Feb 15:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 162 km/h 0.3 m 227 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 90 km/h 0.6 m 1095 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mauritius, Reunion1,385,381
+
Madagascar314,294 
Mauritius844,986 
Reunion226,100 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Jan 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 28 Jan 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Jan 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 29 Jan 2022 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 29 Jan 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 30 Jan 2022 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 30 Jan 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 31 Jan 2022 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 31 Jan 2022 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 01 Feb 2022 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 01 Feb 2022 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 14 02 Feb 2022 00:00 144 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 15 02 Feb 2022 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

1095 mm

Up to 5.1 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmReunion9,204 
500-750 mmReunion99,888 
250-500 mmMadagascar, Reunion1,047,032
+
Madagascar584,502 
Reunion462,530 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mauritius, Reunion3,962,263
+
Madagascar2,738,213 
Mauritius952,453 
Reunion271,596 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion5,567,838
+
Tanzania42,739 
Malawi23,470 
Comoros25,587 
Mozambique46,677 
Madagascar5,133,645 
Mauritius277,782 
Reunion17,935 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Jan 2022 00:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 28 Jan 2022 00:00 252 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 28 Jan 2022 12:00 165 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 29 Jan 2022 00:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 29 Jan 2022 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 30 Jan 2022 00:00 181 -
- - - - - Tanzania
Blue 9 30 Jan 2022 12:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 31 Jan 2022 00:00 239 -
- - - - - Tanzania
Blue 11 31 Jan 2022 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 01 Feb 2022 00:00 204 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 01 Feb 2022 12:00 274 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 14 02 Feb 2022 00:00 310 1 thousand
- - - - Reunion
Blue 15 02 Feb 2022 12:00 967 5.1 million
- Tanzania, Malawi, Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC