Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for AGATHA-22
in Mexico
31 May 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AGATHA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 8 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 198 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (02 Jun 21:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 198 km/h 0.6 m 1019 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 198 km/h 0.6 m 1019 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

198 km/h

Up to 8 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico8,294 
Tropical StormMexico290,911 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 28 May 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 28 May 2022 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 28 May 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 28 May 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 29 May 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 29 May 2022 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 29 May 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 29 May 2022 18:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 30 May 2022 00:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 30 May 2022 06:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 30 May 2022 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 12 30 May 2022 18:00 173 8 thousand
- - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 31 May 2022 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 31 May 2022 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMexico8,004 
500-750 mmMexico64,973 
250-500 mmMexico773,274 
100-250 mmMexico, Guatemala3,684,343
+
Mexico3,599,263 
Guatemala85,079 
50-100 mmMexico, Guatemala5,954,097
+
Mexico5,482,250 
Guatemala471,847 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 28 May 2022 00:00 198 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 28 May 2022 06:00 317 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 28 May 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 28 May 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 29 May 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 29 May 2022 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 29 May 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 29 May 2022 18:00 330 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 30 May 2022 00:00 355 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 30 May 2022 06:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 30 May 2022 12:00 275 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 30 May 2022 18:00 257 170 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 13 31 May 2022 00:00 305 180 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 14 31 May 2022 06:00 543 4 million
- - Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMexico3,340 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Mexico, Cuba, Honduras80,082
+
Mexico9,736 
United States68,142 
Cuba2,153 
Honduras49 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 06:00 UTC