Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAS-22
in Mexico
18 Jun 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAS-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (18 Jun 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 115 km/h 0.4 m 202 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.5 m 882 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jun 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico46,907
+
United States44,955 
Mexico1,952 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 14 Jun 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Jun 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Jun 2022 18:00 86 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 4 15 Jun 2022 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 Jun 2022 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 15 Jun 2022 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Jun 2022 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 16 Jun 2022 00:00 130 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 9 16 Jun 2022 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 16 Jun 2022 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 16 Jun 2022 18:00 144 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 12 17 Jun 2022 00:00 162 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 13 17 Jun 2022 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 17 Jun 2022 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 17 Jun 2022 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 18 Jun 2022 00:00 115 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jun 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua2,598,486
+
Mexico1,512,041 
Belize2,103 
Guatemala782,187 
Honduras235,419 
El Salvador61,482 
Nicaragua5,251 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua18,006,839
+
United States32 
Mexico7,633,837 
Belize249,615 
Guatemala6,540,894 
Honduras2,378,367 
El Salvador1,195,911 
Nicaragua8,180 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 14 Jun 2022 06:00 208 Few people
- - - - Nicaragua
Blue 2 14 Jun 2022 12:00 118 -
- - - - - El Salvador
Blue 3 14 Jun 2022 18:00 84 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Jun 2022 00:00 147 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 15 Jun 2022 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 15 Jun 2022 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 15 Jun 2022 18:00 214 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 16 Jun 2022 00:00 221 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 16 Jun 2022 06:00 203 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 10 16 Jun 2022 12:00 165 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 16 Jun 2022 18:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 17 Jun 2022 00:00 212 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 17 Jun 2022 06:00 243 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 17 Jun 2022 12:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 17 Jun 2022 18:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 18 Jun 2022 00:00 316 2.6 million
- - - - United States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Toledo, Cattle Landing, Belize. This height is estimated for 17/06/2022 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jun 2022 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17/06/2022 06:00 Toledo, Cattle Landing Belize  0.4
17/06/2022 06:00 Belize, Belize City Belize  0.4
16/06/2022 21:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.3
16/06/2022 20:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.3
16/06/2022 22:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.3
17/06/2022 06:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay San Pedro Belize  0.3
17/06/2022 06:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay Bacalar Chico Belize  0.3
17/06/2022 06:00 Quintana Roo, Majahual Mexico  0.3
17/06/2022 06:00 Louisiana, North Side United States  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Louisiana, English Lookout United States  0.2
16/06/2022 06:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Mississippi, Bay St Louis United States  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Mississippi, Henderson Point United States  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
14/06/2022 06:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 03:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 03:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Mississippi, Pass Christian United States  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Mississippi, White Harbor United States  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.2
17/06/2022 03:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 04:00 Louisiana, Cocodrie United States  0.2
17/06/2022 05:00 Veracruz, Veracruz Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Veracruz, Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 04:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
14/06/2022 12:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 04:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
17/06/2022 05:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.2
16/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.2
16/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Tamaulipas, El Porvenir Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 07:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.1
16/06/2022 07:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Sonora, Atanacio Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Veracruz, La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Veracruz, Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Veracruz, Tecolutla Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Veracruz, El Laurel Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Mississippi, Mississippi City United States  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Mississippi, Handsboro United States  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Louisiana, West Point United States  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Sonora, San Jose Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 12:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.1
15/06/2022 04:00 Alabama, Bellefontaine United States  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 08:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Sonora, Guaymas Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Mississippi, Edgewater Park United States  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Mississippi, Beauvoir United States  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Louisiana, Medicant Island Bassa Bassa United States  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Sinaloa, Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 02:00 Baja California Sur, San Carlos Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Louisiana, Breton United States  0.1
14/06/2022 22:00 Escuintla, Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 07:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
15/06/2022 04:00 Alabama, Bayleys Corner United States  0.1
15/06/2022 04:00 Alabama, Mon Louis United States  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Baja California Sur, Tripui Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 07:00 Baja California Sur, San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 05:00 Escuintla, El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 04:00 Michoacan de Ocampo, Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.1
16/06/2022 04:00 Escuintla, La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
15/06/2022 22:00 Escuintla, San Jose Guatemala  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1
14/06/2022 07:00 Baja California Sur, El Tule Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Baja California Sur, Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 22:00 Escuintla, Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
15/06/2022 22:00 Santa Rosa, Papaturro Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 05:00 Oaxaca, Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 05:00 Oaxaca, Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 04:00 Valle, Puerto Grande Honduras  0.1
17/06/2022 00:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 04:00 Valle, El Ajustillo Honduras  0.1
17/06/2022 02:00 Baja California Sur, El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 02:00 Oaxaca, Bajos de Chila Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Louisiana, Port Fourchon United States  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Louisiana, Cheniere Caminada United States  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Louisiana, Grand Isle United States  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Alabama, Heron Bay United States  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Alabama, Alabama Port United States  0.1
16/06/2022 14:00 Oaxaca, Puerto Angel Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 14:00 Louisiana, Chef Menteur United States  0.1
15/06/2022 12:00 Louisiana, South Point United States  0.0