Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAS-22
in Mexico
15 Jun 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAS-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 112 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (17 Jun 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 112 km/h 0.4 m 180 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.5 m 882 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 14 Jun 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Jun 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Jun 2022 18:00 86 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 4 15 Jun 2022 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 Jun 2022 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 15 Jun 2022 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico17,972 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Belize1,772,093
+
United States538 
Mexico1,769,320 
Belize2,234 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 14 Jun 2022 06:00 208 Few people
- - - - Nicaragua
Blue 2 14 Jun 2022 12:00 118 -
- - - - - El Salvador
Blue 3 14 Jun 2022 18:00 84 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Jun 2022 00:00 147 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 15 Jun 2022 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 15 Jun 2022 12:00 584 20 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Belize




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Corozal, Corozal, Belize. This height is estimated for 17/06/2022 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17/06/2022 04:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.3
17/06/2022 04:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.3
14/06/2022 18:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 05:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.2
14/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.2
16/06/2022 18:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.2
15/06/2022 14:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
14/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.2
17/06/2022 05:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay San Pedro Belize  0.2
17/06/2022 05:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay Bacalar Chico Belize  0.2
16/06/2022 12:00 Toledo, Cattle Landing Belize  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Quintana Roo, Majahual Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 05:00 Belize, Belize City Belize  0.2
14/06/2022 18:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
14/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.2
14/06/2022 07:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.2
16/06/2022 18:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 00:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
16/06/2022 21:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
15/06/2022 12:00 Sonora, Atanacio Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 22:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
15/06/2022 18:00 Sonora, Guaymas Mexico  0.2
14/06/2022 18:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
15/06/2022 12:00 Sonora, San Jose Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 20:00 Sinaloa, Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 09:00 Michoacan de Ocampo, Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 03:00 Baja California Sur, Tripui Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 19:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.1
16/06/2022 19:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.1
15/06/2022 18:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 13:00 Baja California Sur, San Carlos Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 23:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.1
16/06/2022 19:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.1
16/06/2022 19:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.1
15/06/2022 20:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 20:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 18:00 Alabama, Bellefontaine United States  0.1
15/06/2022 20:00 Baja California Sur, Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 21:00 Baja California Sur, San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 20:00 Baja California Sur, El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 21:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
15/06/2022 20:00 Baja California Sur, El Tule Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 21:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.1
16/06/2022 17:00 Alabama, Bayleys Corner United States  0.1
16/06/2022 17:00 Alabama, Mon Louis United States  0.1
14/06/2022 22:00 Escuintla, Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
14/06/2022 08:00 Oaxaca, Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 18:00 Mississippi, Bay St Louis United States  0.1
16/06/2022 18:00 Mississippi, Henderson Point United States  0.1
16/06/2022 18:00 Mississippi, Pass Christian United States  0.1
16/06/2022 18:00 Mississippi, White Harbor United States  0.1
15/06/2022 23:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 20:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1
16/06/2022 19:00 Louisiana, North Side United States  0.1
16/06/2022 19:00 Louisiana, English Lookout United States  0.1
14/06/2022 17:00 Escuintla, La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 17:00 Mississippi, Mississippi City United States  0.1
16/06/2022 17:00 Mississippi, Handsboro United States  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Escuintla, El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
14/06/2022 07:00 Oaxaca, Bajos de Chila Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 17:00 Mississippi, Edgewater Park United States  0.1
16/06/2022 17:00 Mississippi, Beauvoir United States  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Escuintla, San Jose Guatemala  0.1
15/06/2022 11:00 Baja California Sur, Isla Cedros Cedros Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 16:00 Louisiana, Cocodrie United States  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Escuintla, Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 17:00 Alabama, Heron Bay United States  0.1
16/06/2022 17:00 Alabama, Alabama Port United States  0.1
14/06/2022 15:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Santa Rosa, Papaturro Guatemala  0.1