Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for AERE-22
in Japan
04 Jul 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AERE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mongolia, China
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (06 Jul 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Japan)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 65 km/h 0.7 m 81 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 1.8 m 535 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Jul 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMongolia, China38,947
+
Mongolia277 
China38,669 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 30 Jun 2022 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2022 00:00 94 -
- - - - - China, Paracel Islands
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2022 06:00 101 -
- - - - - China, Paracel Islands
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2022 12:00 112 -
- - - - - China, Paracel Islands
GREEN 6 01 Jul 2022 18:00 115 -
- - - - - Japan, China, Paracel Islands
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2022 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Japan, Hong Kong, China
GREEN 8 02 Jul 2022 06:00 94 -
- - - - - China, Japan
GREEN 9 02 Jul 2022 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Japan, China
GREEN 10 02 Jul 2022 18:00 76 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 11 03 Jul 2022 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Jul 2022 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 03 Jul 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 03 Jul 2022 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 04 Jul 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 04 Jul 2022 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Mongolia, China
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Jul 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmChina1,252,970 
100-250 mmChina, North Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Micronesia53,771,983
+
China32,407,791 
North Korea5,825,821 
Japan6,170,160 
Taiwan13,786 
Hong Kong6,424,814 
Philippines2,928,160 
Micronesia1,447 
50-100 mmChina, Mongolia, North Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Vietnam, Philippines, Micronesia, Palau, Malaysia259,919,497
+
China221,521,375 
Mongolia204 
North Korea5,397,179 
Japan10,353,370 
Taiwan715,442 
Hong Kong901,666 
Macao436,948 
Vietnam95 
Philippines20,496,726 
Micronesia1,557 
Palau10 
Malaysia94,920 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2022 12:00 118 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 2 30 Jun 2022 18:00 196 50 thousand
- - - - North Korea, Philippines
Blue 3 01 Jul 2022 00:00 226 -
- - - - - China, Paracel Islands
Blue 4 01 Jul 2022 06:00 171 -
- - - - - China, Hong Kong
Blue 5 01 Jul 2022 12:00 147 -
- - - - - Japan, China
Blue 6 01 Jul 2022 18:00 133 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan
Blue 7 02 Jul 2022 00:00 158 -
- - - - - China
Blue 8 02 Jul 2022 06:00 126 20 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 9 02 Jul 2022 12:00 92 -
- - - - - China
Blue 10 02 Jul 2022 18:00 101 -
- - - - - China
Blue 11 03 Jul 2022 00:00 100 Few people
- - - - China
Blue 12 03 Jul 2022 06:00 62 -
- - - - - China
Blue 13 03 Jul 2022 12:00 93 -
- - - - - China
Blue 14 03 Jul 2022 18:00 128 40 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 15 04 Jul 2022 00:00 147 1.2 million
- - - - China
Blue 16 04 Jul 2022 06:00 334 55 million
- - - China, Mongolia, North Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Vietnam, Philippines, Micronesia, Palau, Malaysia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Jul 2022 06:00 UTC