Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTELLE-22
in Mexico
15 Jul 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (16 Jul 09:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 58 km/h 0.7 m 126 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 158 km/h 0.7 m 454 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

158 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico47,134
+
United States29,179 
Mexico17,955 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Jul 2022 12:00 151 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Guatemala161,095
+
Mexico80,428 
Guatemala80,666 
50-100 mmMexico, Guatemala14,106,095
+
Mexico12,799,152 
Guatemala1,306,942 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Jul 2022 12:00 350 160 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Sonora, La Choya, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15/07/2022 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15/07/2022 21:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.3
17/07/2022 18:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
15/07/2022 23:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
18/07/2022 09:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
15/07/2022 18:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
16/07/2022 00:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.2
15/07/2022 19:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
18/07/2022 08:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.2
18/07/2022 09:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.1
17/07/2022 19:00 Sonora, Atanacio Mexico  0.1
15/07/2022 19:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
18/07/2022 06:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.1
18/07/2022 08:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.1
16/07/2022 00:00 Sinaloa, Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
16/07/2022 17:00 Valle, Puerto Grande Honduras  0.1
16/07/2022 17:00 Valle, El Moray Honduras  0.1
17/07/2022 04:00 Sonora, San Jose Mexico  0.1
18/07/2022 09:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.1
17/07/2022 04:00 Sonora, Guaymas Mexico  0.1
15/07/2022 13:00 California, Faria United States  0.1
18/07/2022 04:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.1
18/07/2022 04:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.1
15/07/2022 20:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
17/07/2022 20:00 Baja California Sur, Tripui Mexico  0.1
18/07/2022 04:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.1
18/07/2022 04:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.1
15/07/2022 21:00 Baja California Sur, San Carlos Mexico  0.1
16/07/2022 01:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
18/07/2022 12:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.1
18/07/2022 12:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.1
15/07/2022 20:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.1
17/07/2022 09:00 Valle, El Ajustillo Honduras  0.1
17/07/2022 09:00 Valle, Las Piletas Honduras  0.1
17/07/2022 20:00 Baja California Sur, Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
18/07/2022 12:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.1
18/07/2022 10:00 Toledo, Cattle Landing Belize  0.1