Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTELLE-22
in Mexico
19 Jul 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (19 Jul 15:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 94 km/h 0.4 m 99 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 158 km/h 0.7 m 454 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

158 km/h

Up to 7 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico6,681
+
United States5,655 
Mexico1,025 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Jul 2022 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Jul 2022 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 16 Jul 2022 00:00 83 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 4 16 Jul 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 16 Jul 2022 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 16 Jul 2022 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 7 17 Jul 2022 00:00 122 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 8 17 Jul 2022 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 17 Jul 2022 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 17 Jul 2022 18:00 140 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 11 18 Jul 2022 00:00 133 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 12 18 Jul 2022 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 18 Jul 2022 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 18 Jul 2022 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 19 Jul 2022 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 19 Jul 2022 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 19 Jul 2022 12:00 94 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico17,137
+
United States2,778 
Mexico14,359 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico538,744
+
United States409,769 
Mexico128,974 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Jul 2022 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Jul 2022 18:00 109 3 thousand
- - - - Guatemala
Blue 3 16 Jul 2022 00:00 73 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 16 Jul 2022 06:00 117 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 16 Jul 2022 12:00 171 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 16 Jul 2022 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 17 Jul 2022 00:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 17 Jul 2022 06:00 130 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 17 Jul 2022 12:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 17 Jul 2022 18:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 18 Jul 2022 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 18 Jul 2022 06:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 18 Jul 2022 12:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 18 Jul 2022 18:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 19 Jul 2022 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 19 Jul 2022 06:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 19 Jul 2022 12:00 490 20 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC