Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTELLE-22
in Mexico
17 Jul 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (17 Jul 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 140 km/h 0.5 m 275 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 151 km/h 0.7 m 323 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 Jul 2022 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Jul 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Jul 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 16 Jul 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 16 Jul 2022 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 16 Jul 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 16 Jul 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 17 Jul 2022 00:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 17 Jul 2022 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

323 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 17 Jul 2022 06:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Jul 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Jul 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 16 Jul 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 16 Jul 2022 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 16 Jul 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 16 Jul 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 17 Jul 2022 00:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 17 Jul 2022 06:00 366 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Texas, El Campo Club Community, United States. This height is estimated for 19/07/2022 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jul 2022 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19/07/2022 20:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
20/07/2022 00:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.2
17/07/2022 03:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.2
19/07/2022 03:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
19/07/2022 19:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
17/07/2022 00:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
19/07/2022 20:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
20/07/2022 00:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.2
17/07/2022 16:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
19/07/2022 20:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.2
19/07/2022 23:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
19/07/2022 22:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.2
19/07/2022 22:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.2
17/07/2022 01:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
20/07/2022 00:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.2
19/07/2022 22:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.1
19/07/2022 22:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.1
17/07/2022 00:00 Sonora, Guaymas Mexico  0.1
19/07/2022 03:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.1
17/07/2022 00:00 Sonora, Atanacio Mexico  0.1
19/07/2022 18:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
17/07/2022 00:00 Sonora, San Jose Mexico  0.1
19/07/2022 18:00 Toledo, Cattle Landing Belize  0.1
19/07/2022 22:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
20/07/2022 00:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.1
17/07/2022 14:00 Baja California Sur, Tripui Mexico  0.1
20/07/2022 00:00 Quintana Roo, Vigia Chico Mexico  0.1
17/07/2022 01:00 California, Faria United States  0.1
19/07/2022 23:00 Belize, Belize City Belize  0.1
17/07/2022 01:00 Michoacan de Ocampo, Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
20/07/2022 00:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.1
20/07/2022 00:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay San Pedro Belize  0.1
19/07/2022 20:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.1
20/07/2022 00:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay Bacalar Chico Belize  0.1
20/07/2022 00:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.1
20/07/2022 00:00 Louisiana, Cocodrie United States  0.1
20/07/2022 00:00 Quintana Roo, Majahual Mexico  0.1
17/07/2022 11:00 Escuintla, Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
20/07/2022 00:00 Quintana Roo, El Placer Mexico  0.1
17/07/2022 03:00 Valle, Puerto Grande Honduras  0.1
17/07/2022 03:00 Valle, El Moray Honduras  0.1
19/07/2022 20:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1