Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HOWARD-22
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HOWARD-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (12 Aug 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 137 km/h 0.5 m 50 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.5 m 295 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 09 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Aug 2022 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Aug 2022 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Aug 2022 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Aug 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Aug 2022 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Aug 2022 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Aug 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Aug 2022 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Aug 2022 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Aug 2022 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 09 Aug 2022 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Aug 2022 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Aug 2022 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

295 mm

No people can be affected rain lower than 100mm





Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 09 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Aug 2022 12:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Aug 2022 18:00 292 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Aug 2022 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Aug 2022 06:00 156 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Aug 2022 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 07 Aug 2022 18:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 08 Aug 2022 00:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Aug 2022 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Aug 2022 12:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Aug 2022 18:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 09 Aug 2022 00:00 64 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 09 Aug 2022 06:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 09 Aug 2022 12:00 111 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Aug 2022 12:00 UTC