Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NANMADOL-22
in Japan
20 Sep 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NANMADOL-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Japan, China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, Philippines
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.1 m (14 Sep 16:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Japan)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 158 km/h 2.1 m 570 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 158 km/h 2.1 m 570 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormJapan, China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, Philippines51,124,182
+
Japan17,550,071 
China33,070,750 
Russia4,307 
North Korea472,419 
South Korea22,495 
Philippines4,138 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 12 Sep 2022 18:00 126 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 2 13 Sep 2022 00:00 144 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 3 13 Sep 2022 06:00 158 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 4 13 Sep 2022 12:00 137 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 5 13 Sep 2022 18:00 144 -
- - - - - Russia, China
GREEN 6 14 Sep 2022 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Russia, South Korea, China, Japan
GREEN 7 14 Sep 2022 06:00 130 -
- - - - - China, Japan
GREEN 8 14 Sep 2022 12:00 112 -
- - - - - China, Japan
GREEN 9 14 Sep 2022 18:00 104 -
- - - - - China, Japan
GREEN 10 15 Sep 2022 00:00 97 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 11 15 Sep 2022 06:00 101 -
- - - - - China, Japan
GREEN 12 15 Sep 2022 12:00 104 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 13 15 Sep 2022 18:00 144 -
- - - - - China, Philippines
GREEN 14 16 Sep 2022 00:00 144 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 15 16 Sep 2022 06:00 130 -
- - - - - North Korea
GREEN 16 16 Sep 2022 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 17 16 Sep 2022 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 18 17 Sep 2022 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 19 17 Sep 2022 06:00 144 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 20 17 Sep 2022 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 21 17 Sep 2022 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 22 18 Sep 2022 00:00 122 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 23 18 Sep 2022 06:00 130 -
- - - - - Japan, South Korea
GREEN 24 18 Sep 2022 12:00 115 -
- - - - - Japan, South Korea
GREEN 25 18 Sep 2022 18:00 101 -
- - - - - North Korea, South Korea, Japan
GREEN 26 19 Sep 2022 00:00 101 -
- - - - - North Korea, China, South Korea, Japan
GREEN 27 19 Sep 2022 06:00 112 -
- - - - - North Korea, South Korea, Japan
GREEN 28 19 Sep 2022 12:00 112 -
- - - - - Japan, North Korea, South Korea
GREEN 29 19 Sep 2022 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Russia, Japan
GREEN 30 20 Sep 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 20 Sep 2022 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 20 Sep 2022 12:00 72 -
- - - - - China, Japan
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

570 mm

Up to 159.6 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmJapan25,722 
250-500 mmChina, Japan, Philippines11,934,939
+
China9,925,155 
Japan1,751,210 
Philippines258,574 
100-250 mmChina, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Micronesia, Malaysia147,595,868
+
China98,291,602 
Japan15,881,043 
South Korea1,971,340 
Philippines31,053,152 
Northern Mariana Islands55,070 
Guam169,884 
Micronesia39,820 
Malaysia133,953 
50-100 mmChina, Russia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Philippines, Micronesia, Malaysia198,668,332
+
China76,509,575 
Russia119,575 
Japan59,915,164 
North Korea1,319,322 
South Korea4,714,691 
Taiwan4,340,492 
Hong Kong970 
Macao559 
Philippines50,138,499 
Micronesia16,122 
Malaysia1,593,357 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 12 Sep 2022 18:00 134 -
- - - - - China
Blue 2 13 Sep 2022 00:00 137 -
- - - - - China
Blue 3 13 Sep 2022 06:00 225 -
- - - - - China
Blue 4 13 Sep 2022 12:00 142 -
- - - - - China
Blue 5 13 Sep 2022 18:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 14 Sep 2022 00:00 157 -
- - - - - China
Blue 7 14 Sep 2022 06:00 111 330 thousand
- - - - China, Japan, Philippines
Blue 8 14 Sep 2022 12:00 190 -
- - - - - China
Blue 9 14 Sep 2022 18:00 124 -
- - - - - China
Blue 10 15 Sep 2022 00:00 85 -
- - - - - China
Blue 11 15 Sep 2022 06:00 143 10 thousand
- - - - China, Philippines
Blue 12 15 Sep 2022 12:00 66 -
- - - - - China, Philippines
Blue 13 15 Sep 2022 18:00 106 -
- - - - - China
Blue 14 16 Sep 2022 00:00 124 -
- - - - - China
Blue 15 16 Sep 2022 06:00 96 -
- - - - - China
Blue 16 16 Sep 2022 12:00 140 -
- - - - - China
Blue 17 16 Sep 2022 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 17 Sep 2022 00:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 17 Sep 2022 06:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 17 Sep 2022 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 17 Sep 2022 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 22 18 Sep 2022 00:00 169 1 million
- - - - Japan
Blue 23 18 Sep 2022 06:00 187 1.3 million
- - - - Japan
Blue 24 18 Sep 2022 12:00 122 110 thousand
- - - - South Korea, Japan
Blue 25 18 Sep 2022 18:00 123 10 thousand
- - - - Japan
Blue 26 19 Sep 2022 00:00 171 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 27 19 Sep 2022 06:00 208 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 28 19 Sep 2022 12:00 158 -
- - - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 29 19 Sep 2022 18:00 101 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 30 20 Sep 2022 00:00 69 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 20 Sep 2022 06:00 80 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 20 Sep 2022 12:00 214 5 thousand
- - - - China, Japan, Philippines, Micronesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
2.0 - 3.0 mChina138,374 
1.0 - 2.0 mChina, North Korea, Japan2,859,005
+
Japan301,024 
China2,546,280 
North Korea11,701 
0.5 - 1.0 mJapan, Russia, China, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines5,867,518
+
Russia22,044 
Japan2,333,966 
China2,936,824 
North Korea141,456 
South Korea149,594 
Taiwan4,496 
Philippines279,135 
0.25 - 0.5 mRussia, Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Malaysia7,252,959
+
Russia12,279 
Japan2,460,270 
China3,477,406 
North Korea317,684 
South Korea335,505 
Taiwan19,450 
Hong Kong140,862 
Philippines487,787 
Malaysia1,713 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC