Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARL-22
in Mexico
15 Oct 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARL-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (18 Oct 11:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 54 km/h 0.8 m 523 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 54 km/h 0.8 m 523 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

54 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 11 Oct 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 11 Oct 2022 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 12 Oct 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 12 Oct 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 13 Oct 2022 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 13 Oct 2022 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 14 Oct 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 14 Oct 2022 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 15 Oct 2022 00:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 15 Oct 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmCosta Rica, Panama31,007
+
Costa Rica28,026 
Panama2,981 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama13,356,701
+
United States5,298 
Mexico4,912,673 
Belize1,936 
Guatemala1,014,935 
Honduras547,714 
El Salvador484,954 
Nicaragua1,144,258 
Costa Rica3,788,194 
Panama1,456,736 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Cuba, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama38,912,431
+
United States5,178,241 
Mexico12,247,975 
Cuba54,011 
Belize190,516 
Guatemala8,536,571 
Honduras1,602,245 
El Salvador4,611,248 
Nicaragua3,149,914 
Colombia76,993 
Costa Rica904,771 
Panama2,359,941 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 11 Oct 2022 00:00 132 -
- - - - - Mexico, Belize
Blue 2 11 Oct 2022 12:00 152 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 12 Oct 2022 00:00 141 5 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 4 12 Oct 2022 12:00 136 -
- - - - - United States, Panama
Blue 5 13 Oct 2022 00:00 193 Few people
- - - - United States, Mexico, Honduras
Blue 6 13 Oct 2022 12:00 402 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 14 Oct 2022 00:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 14 Oct 2022 12:00 143 Few people
- - - - Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 9 15 Oct 2022 00:00 203 -
- - - - - Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 10 15 Oct 2022 12:00 470 350 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMexico, Panama44,574
+
Mexico9,872 
Panama34,702 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Mexico, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama270,186
+
United States53,970 
Mexico100,531 
Belize76,365 
Honduras5,514 
El Salvador2,896 
Nicaragua3,449 
Costa Rica24,329 
Panama3,128 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC