Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NALGAE-22
in China, Philippines
27 Oct 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NALGAE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Taiwan, China, Philippines, Micronesia
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (30 Oct 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 108 km/h 1.2 m 216 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 126 km/h 1.3 m 716 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

126 km/h

Up to 40.1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Philippines23,942 
Tropical StormTaiwan, China, Philippines, Micronesia40,067,316
+
Taiwan2,868,360 
China125,248 
Philippines37,073,443 
Micronesia264 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 Oct 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Oct 2022 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Oct 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Oct 2022 18:00 130 20 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, China, Philippines, Micronesia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmPhilippines195,491 
250-500 mmPhilippines18,610,058 
100-250 mmPhilippines, Micronesia, Malaysia40,371,912
+
Philippines40,254,952 
Micronesia7,675 
Malaysia109,284 
50-100 mmJapan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Micronesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia22,256,356
+
Japan118 
Taiwan468,428 
Philippines18,306,209 
Vietnam1,461,747 
Micronesia1,324 
Malaysia1,617,717 
Brunei356,801 
Indonesia44,008 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 Oct 2022 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Oct 2022 06:00 390 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Oct 2022 12:00 345 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 4 27 Oct 2022 18:00 671 59.2 million
- - Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Micronesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.2 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC