Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
21 Jan 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (21 Jan 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 97 km/h 0.5 m 137 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 1.5 m 905 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

151 km/h

Up to 300 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar299,432 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2023 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2023 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2023 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 20 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 20 Jan 2023 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 20 Jan 2023 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2023 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 21 Jan 2023 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 21 Jan 2023 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 21 Jan 2023 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar3,547 
250-500 mmMadagascar2,660,608 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Malawi, Mozambique6,640,035
+
Mozambique229,883 
Madagascar5,426,164 
Malawi983,988 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Reunion15,670,052
+
Indonesia45,188 
Tanzania28,261 
Mozambique452,287 
Comoros418,669 
Madagascar8,955,697 
Malawi4,118,922 
Mauritius962,364 
Reunion688,661 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 18 Jan 2023 00:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 192 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 4 18 Jan 2023 18:00 275 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 00:00 111 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar
Blue 6 19 Jan 2023 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 19 Jan 2023 12:00 119 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2023 18:00 96 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mauritius
Blue 9 20 Jan 2023 00:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 20 Jan 2023 06:00 100 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 20 Jan 2023 12:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2023 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 21 Jan 2023 00:00 114 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 21 Jan 2023 06:00 117 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 15 21 Jan 2023 12:00 568 9.3 million
- - Indonesia, Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC